Trump’s felony conviction may sap support among crucial voters, new poll shows – live | US elections 2024

In 10 days, Donald Trump and Joe Biden will hold the first of two scheduled debates at CNN studios in Atlanta. Ahead of their 27 June encounter, the president’s re-election campaign announced it will be spending $50m on television advertisements to remind voters that the former president is now a convicted felon.

“Trump approaches the first debate as a convicted felon who continues to prove that he will do anything and harm anyone if it means more power and vengeance for Donald Trump. That’s why he was convicted, that’s why he encouraged a violent mob to storm the Capitol on January 6, and it’s why his entire campaign is an exercise in revenge and retribution; because that man is blind to the people a president should be serving and will do absolutely anything for his own personal gain and for his own power,” said Michael Tyler, the Biden-Harris campaign’s communications director.

The ad is called “Character Matters”, and you can see it here:

The campaign is also spending money this month on ads targeted at Black, Asian and Hispanic voters, which talk about subjects like the Affordable Care Act, and the Biden administration’s attempts to fight inflation.

If there is good news for Donald Trump in the Politico Magazine and Ipsos poll released this morning, it’s that many voters have questions over the fairness of his felony conviction.

Trump and his surrogates have insisted that his prosecution in New York City on 34 business fraud charges was a “witch hunt” orchestrated by Democrats and, in particular, Joe Biden. In fact, the charges were brought by Alvin Bragg, the Manhattan district attorney who is indeed a Democrat, but there is no evidence that he was doing the party’s bidding, or that the White House, which does not have the power to direct local prosecutors, was involved.

Nonetheless, the survey shows signs those arguments may have broken through with some voters. While a 46% plurality said they thought the verdict was “fair and impartial”, 32% disagreed, while 19% said they did not know – a group that Trump could perhaps sway.

The perception that Biden was “directly involved” in bringing the case was also common among survey respondents, with 29% saying yes, and 25% saying they did not know. Both results indicate that there could be some upside potential for Trump, as he continues to proclaim his innocence of the charges.

Good morning, US politics blog readers. From the Access Hollywood tape to January 6, Donald Trump has repeatedly been associated with the sorts of scandals that would have sunk other politicians’ careers, but did not stop his rise to the White House, nor his once again becoming the GOP’s presumptive presidential nominee this year. Yet the evidence continues to mount that the title “convicted felon”, which he gained after a New York City jury found him guilty of 34 business fraud charges in May, may make a difference with the sorts of voters expected to decide his November election rematch against Joe Biden. Politico Magazine and Ipsos today released a survey showing that 21% of independents were less likely to vote for Trump because of his conviction, while a mere 5% said it made them more likely to support him.

Recent polls of swing states have showed a neck-and-neck contest between the current and former president. While plenty can change between now and November, the poll’s findings raise the possibility that the election could come down to how small groups of voters swing. Independents are one such group, and if they continue to be turned off by his criminal conviction, it could give Biden the edge.

Here’s what else is going on today:

• Biden holds a White House meeting with Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg at 3.30pm. Expect lots of talk about Ukraine and Russia.

• The first presidential debate is in 10 days, and the Biden campaign is targeting Trump with a $50m barrage of ads over his felony conviction, to be aired in the days leading up to their parlay.

• Trump continues to hype up his pick for vice-president, though he has yet to announce a decision. Ohio senator JD Vance, New York congresswoman Elise Stefanik, South Carolina senator Tim Scott and North Dakota governor Doug Burgum are said to be in the mix, with an announcement likely closer to the Republican national convention next month.