John Jefferson
In recent years there has been growing criticism of the electoral college system in the US because it has allowed a tiny number of Americans to determine the outcome of the presidential election.
In 2020, about 43,000 votes among Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona – a mere 0.03% of the votes cast nationwide – allowed Joe Biden to win. In 2016, about 80,000 combined votes gave Donald Trump his winning margins in key swing states.
How does this happen? How is such a slim margin so decisive in an election in which 154.6m votes are cast? Here’s how it works.
The challenge in 2024
Presidential candidates need at least 270 electoral votes – more than half of the total – to win an election. As narrow victories can get parties over the line and determine the election, those states with very close wins, often called “swing states”, get special attention from pollsters, campaigners and pundits.
In the 2024 election, there are six swing states: Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (15), Georgia (16), Arizona (11) and Nevada (6). The Harris campaign also considers North Carolina, usually a Republican state in the presidential race, and its 16 electoral votes to be competitive. Whichever candidate wins the election must carry some combination of those states.
The idea of a swing state can also change over time with shifting demographics and political trends. Until recently, for example, Ohio and Florida were considered swing states, but they are now considered to be pretty solidly Republican. Michigan was considered a relatively solid Democratic stronghold until Trump won it in 2016.
Over the next few months, Trump and Kamala Harris will spend most of their time campaigning in these states, knowing that these voters will determine the outcome of the election.
Criticisms of the electoral system
These very narrow wins in recent elections add into the growing criticism that the power of a presidential vote depends on where one lives.
The least populous states, such as North and South Dakota, and the smaller states of New England are overrepresented because of the required minimum of three electoral votes.
Electoral votes are assigned to each state according to their population. But then each of them gets two more to represent their Senate seats – which means less populous states get a minimum of three electoral votes, regardless of the size of their population. Meanwhile, the states with the most people – California, Texas and Florida – are underrepresented in the electoral college.
This means that while one elector in Wyoming represents 195,000 people, in a state like Texas, one elector represents 763,000 people.
This has become more relevant in recent times, as during the last 20 years the number of states won by margins of more than 15% – a landslide win – has increased.
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