Trump Goes to Venezuela

President Donald Trump’s special envoy, Ric Grenell, flew to Venezuela Friday to meet with the recently inaugurated president Nicolás Maduro. Grenell, charged with establishing the new administration’s priorities there, met with Maduro and discussed a range of topics, including U.S. sanctions, American hostages held by Venezuela, and migration. 

By all appearances, he succeeded in accomplishing his objectives: That same day, he flew back to the United States with six Americans who had been held in prison by the Maduro government. The next day, Donald Trump announced that the Venezuelan government had agreed to accept the deportation of Venezuelans who had illegally immigrated to the U.S., with a particular focus on members of the notorious Tren de Aragua gang.

The deportation agreement—which, notably, has not been officially confirmed by the Maduro government—is of particular interest. Maduro has long used immigration as a form of pressure release for his unpopular rule of the country: Dissidents who flee the country no longer trouble the stability or integrity of the government. Accepting repatriation flights is also a break from his usual policy of hostility towards the U.S., which has been a major component of Venezuelan foreign policy since before Maduro inherited the presidency from his predecessor Hugo Chávez.

Grenell’s odyssey presents an interesting question regarding the position of the new Trump administration to Maduro in Venezuela, whom the U.S. does not currently recognize as the rightful leader of the country. Will President Trump seek to practice the art of the deal with Venezuela? Trump has taken a harsh line towards the country in the past, placing significant sanctions on them in 2017 and 2018. Some Trump-associated figures, like Erik Prince, have even publicly advocated for overthrowing the Maduro government by force. Nevertheless, there is some potential for the administration to attempt negotiation with Maduro if he so chooses. Venezuela is always in desperate need of markets for its oil, and Trump has placed great emphasis on expanding American energy production. Further, the growing numbers of Venezuelan immigrants that have entered the U.S. could present a thorny problem for the Trump administration and its deportation priorities if Venezuela proves unwilling to accept repatriation flights.

On the other hand, Venezuela has proven itself an unreliable partner in the past. The Biden administration temporarily raised sanctions in return for a promise by Maduro to end the practice of imprisoning opposition political figures and running a free and fair election, something that the Venezuelan government almost immediately reneged on. The U.S. had to implement the tariffs again only months later, and the whole incident made Biden look faintly ridiculous. Additionally, the strict sanctions the U.S. currently has in place against the country leave Trump with relatively little leverage. He can offer incentives, such as the lifting of sanctions, but there’s little potential punishment he can wield to force Maduro into a deal.

A major part of Trump’s foreign policy has been a renewed focus on Latin America as part of a revived Monroe Doctrine, and he’s shown willingness both to play hardball, as with Petro in Colombia, and to make deals, as with the recent agreement between the U.S. and Mexico. One of newly confirmed Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s first actions has been to conduct a whirlwind tour of Latin America, where he has already taken the opportunity to extract from the government of Panama a promise to end its participation in China’s Belt and Road initiative. As the most powerful of the few reing explicitly anti-American regimes in Latin America (along with the failing nations of Cuba, Bolivia, and Ortega’s Nicaragua), Venezuela may prove the biggest challenge to successfully accomplishing this goal and reestablishing American dominance in the Western Hemisphere. 

Whatever the Trump administration’s plans at present, it will have to come up with a serious way to engage Venezuela in the future. The unpopular and repressive Maduro government is a major cause of instability in the region and also serves as a significant source of Chinese influence. Finding an effective way to manage U.S.–Venezuela relations that allows Trump to accomplish his objectives at home and abroad will prove one of the most significant tests of his administration this term.