Johnson followed McCarthy in working with Democrats. Can he avoid his fate? | Mike Johnson

The Republican House speaker, Mike Johnson, pursued the same strategy as his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, to prevent a government shutdown this month – working with Democrats to pass a bipartisan funding deal.

Now Johnson has to hope he can avoid the same fate as McCarthy, the California congressman who was ousted from the speakership by hard-right members of his own conference last year just days after the House voted to keep the government open.

The House voted 341 to 82 on Wednesday to extend government funding through 20 December, averting a shutdown that was set to begin next week. The stopgap funding bill, known as a continuing resolution, attracted the support of 132 Republicans and 209 Democrats in the House.

But 82 House Republicans, representing more than a third of Johnson’s conference, voted against the legislation. That widespread opposition could spell trouble for the future of Johnson’s speakership.

It was only a year ago that eight hard-right Republicans joined 208 Democrats to oust McCarthy from the speaker’s chair less than a year after his election. The congressman Matt Gaetz, who led the charge against McCarthy, had fiercely criticized the then speaker for working with Democrats to keep the government open.

In the days leading up to the shutdown deadline last year, McCarthy initially tried to pass a more rightwing funding proposal with only Republican support. That bill failed after 21 House Republicans, including Gaetz, voted against it. The failure forced McCarthy to take up a more neutral funding bill that ultimately received more support from Democrats than Republicans, just as Johnson’s bill did on Wednesday. McCarthy’s act of bipartisanship prevented a shutdown but cost him his job, after Gaetz forced a vote on a motion to vacate the chair.

That historic vote kicked off weeks of chaos in the House, as Republicans repeatedly tried and failed to unify around a new speaker. In the end, Johnson, who was House Republicans’ fourth speaker nominee in the three weeks after McCarthy’s removal, emerged victorious and seized the gavel.

Now Johnson finds himself in the same position that McCarthy did. Last week, Johnson tried to pass a more rightwing funding bill that was combined with the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (Save) Act, which would require people to show proof of citizenship when they register to vote. But that bill failed to pass, as 14 House Republicans and all but two House Democrats voted against the proposal.

After that setback, Johnson reckoned with a reality he had ignored for weeks: that the only way to fund the government would be to pass a continuing resolution narrow enough to win Democrats’ support.

The concession sparked outrage among some hard-right Republicans, who condemned the continuing resolution as another symptom of reckless government spending. But it res unclear what their frustration will mean for the speaker’s future, and unlike McCarthy, Johnson’s prospects may benefit from the election calendar.

With less than six weeks left until election day, Johnson repeatedly warned fellow Republicans that it would be “political malpractice” to shut down the government. In a “Dear Colleague” letter sent on Sunday, Johnson cited polling showing that 63% of independent voters, who will play a crucial role in House elections, opposed a government shutdown.

Johnson has bristled at comparisons between him and his predecessor, insisting his strategy is nothing like McCarthy’s because of the “very different circumstances” of the latest funding fight. And Johnson has already survived one threat to his speakership, after the House easily quashed the congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene’s resolution to oust him back in May. Greene had attacked Johnson over his reliance on Democratic support to pass several major bills, but a bipartisan coalition voted to kill Greene’s motion to remove the speaker.

But more Republicans may turn against Johnson if Donald Trump lashes out against the speaker over the shutdown fight. Trump had previously called on Republican lawmakers to reject any funding deal unless it was linked to “election security” measures, a demand that was not met. Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Johnson insisted there was “no daylight” between his position and Trump’s.

“President Trump understands the current dilemma and the situation that we’re in,” Johnson said. “I keep him apprised all the time of everything that’s happening because he is our nominee for president, and he’s going to be the next president, so we’ll continue working closely together. I’m not defying President Trump. We’re getting our job done, and I think he understands that.”

Even if Johnson can keep Trump in his corner, his efforts to keep the speakership may be for naught depending on the results of the elections in November. Democrats only need to win five more seats than they did in 2022 to retake the majority, which would probably elevate the House minority leader, Hakeem Jeffries, to the position.

Asked about his expectations for November, Johnson said he was “very optimistic”, but he sidestepped a question about whether he would run for minority leader if Republicans lost the House.

“We’ll cross that bridge when we come to it,” Johnson said on Wednesday after the vote. “I believe we’re going to hold the House, and I intend to be the speaker in the new Congress.”

Time will tell whether Johnson’s colleagues have other plans for him.