John Jefferson
On the campaign trail, President-elect Donald Trump consistently promised to end the war in Ukraine before he even took office and said he would do it in one day.
That campaign promise surely terrifies Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky and cautiously encourages Russian President Vladimir Putin. But beyond the obvious responses, their hopes and calculations are far more complicated and nuanced.
Publicly, Putin said he preferred Biden. He said that Biden is “a more experienced person, he’s predictable, he’s an old-style politician.”
In Zelensky’s and Putin’s calculations, it all comes down to that predictability. An increasingly desperate Zelensky who is seeking to break through the status quo is angrily frustrated by Biden’s predictability and willing to take a chance on the mercurial Trump. An increasingly confident Putin can cautiously trust that, though his calibrations for doing so are precarious and irresponsible, Biden has attempted to prevent the war from escalating while having trepidations about the capricious Trump.
Of the three candidates—Biden, Harris and Trump—Putin viewed Biden as the most “old-style politician” who still remembers the deterrence of nuclear weapons. Putin has at least twice said that “Biden is a more preferable president for Russia.” When Biden “was removed from the race,” Putin, half jokingly, said he would accept Biden’s endorsement of Harris and “support her.”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said that Russia has “no preferences.” He says that Russia is not interested in the person but in the policy and that whichever person “wins the election, we do not see any prospect for a change in the U.S.’s Russophobic stance.” But Putin may feel more comfortable with the more predictable Biden.
Zelensky may be less enthused by that predictability. Biden has attempted to balance giving Ukraine what it asks for with the risk of escalating to the point of a Russia–NATO war. Zelensky was angered by the Biden administration’s refusal to green light strikes deep inside Russian territory with Western supplied long-range missiles. The Economist reports that, privately, Zelensky’s staff “have become increasingly frustrated by what they describe as the Biden administration’s ‘self-deterrence’, the habit of fearing escalation with Russia to the point of paralysis, and a growing gap between the rhetoric of ‘standing with Ukraine for as long as it takes’ and actions that suggest the opposite.” That predictability has led to “many senior officials… hoping for a Donald Trump victory.” The predictability that Putin values is the very predictability that has come to infuriate Zelensky.
Zelensky has become increasingly angry and disillusioned with Biden. The Washington Post reports that Ukrainian officials have become increasingly critical of the Biden administration. The relationship has soured, and Zelensky may harbor hope “that a change in power in Washington could work to Kiev’s advantage.”
That change in power could be less tantalizing to Putin than expected. Putin remembers that Trump imposed sanctions on Russia that exceeded sanctions imposed during the Cold War. Lavrov recently reminded an interviewer that “at one point, the Trump administration imposed the highest number of sanctions against Russia compared to its predecessors.” Trump once boasted: “There’s never been a president as tough on Russia as I have been.” A Russian diplomat who deals with U.S. relations called the first Trump term “the worst four years of our lives.”
Putin remembers that it was Trump, not Biden, who first started arming Ukraine to the teeth and creating an anti-Russia bridgehead on Russia’s border. Anatol Lieven has recently pointed out that, amongst the Russian establishment, there is a profound distrust of Trump.
Though Zelensky surely dreads an administration that features a president who campaigned on promises of ending the war and a vice president who has opposed aid packages to Ukraine and proposed a diplomatic settlement that deprives Ukraine of both NATO and territory, his position on Trump may be as nuanced as his position on Putin.
Zelensky has grown increasingly frustrated and unhappy with Biden. He knows what to expect from the “predictable” president. With Ukraine facing defeat, and the United States still refusing long-range strikes into Russia, Zelensky may prefer to roll the dice with an unpredictable president.
And the same Trump campaign promise that is unwelcome to Zelensky’s hopes for winning the war, may be just what he needs for losing it. The possibility of Trump conditioning aid to Ukraine on Ukraine’s willingness to negotiate provides Zelensky with a way out of the war. Biden rejected the military requests outlined in Zelensky’s Ukrainian Victory Plan, then Trump threatened to withhold any aid unless Ukraine negotiates a diplomatic end to the war. Having been betrayed by the U.S. on the promise of whatever you need for as long as you need it, Zelensky can tell the people of Ukraine that, without the promised support from the West, it is impossible for Ukraine to continue the war against Russia. He can realistically say that Trump has forced him into negotiations.
With Trump in office, Zelensky has an answer to the question of why he chose to fight on when a diplomatic settlement was within reach in the first days of the war only now to negotiate a more painful peace at the cost of so much life and land: Trump left him no choice.
Though Putin is surely encouraged by Trump’s election and Zelensky is surely terrified by it, their practical calculations may be more complicated and nuanced.
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