John Jefferson
Iran’s terror goons are in crisis mode right now. Having seen their missile attack on Israel fail yet again due to Israel’s powerful defenses, Iran is now expecting an Israeli counterstrike.
“There will be severe consequences for this attack, and we will work with Israel to make that the case,” National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on Tuesday, October 1. All the G7 nations agree Israel has the right to strike back, President Joe Biden added Wednesday.
Iran wants blood. But they are running out of options. More than 40,000 U.S. forces were already deployed to U.S. Central Command in the Middle East, in locations from Syria to the Red Sea. Three more squadrons of F-15Es, F-16s and A-10s are on the way to U.S. Central Command, joining stealth F-22s, F-35s and others already in the region.
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The aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln is launching jets day and night and the USS Wasp, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit aboard, is in the eastern Mediterranean. The submarine USS Georgia, carrying 154 Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles, is nearby too, along with a bevy of U.S. Navy destroyers.
Make no mistake. This is enough firepower to hit many types of Iranian targets. Guarantee you, Iran’s military units are scrambling to prepare. While being very, very careful about using cellphones.
Whatever action comes will aim to weaken and contain Iran. Iran’s proxies Hamas and Hezbollah have been mauled. But this conflict won’t be over as long as the ayatollah holds power over Iran’s people. That gang has been in the ideology and terror business for almost 50 years and won’t go quietly.
Look for desperate Iran to consider six moves – including two here in the USA.
1. Ramping up nuclear enrichment
Already in massive violation of the United Nations inspection regime, Iran proclaimed in July they would install more than 1,400 centrifuges at the underground Fordow facility. “Iran has managed to reach a point where it can not only produce nuclear weapons on-demand but produce large quantities of WGU [weapons-grade uranium] quickly in a very hard-to-destroy enrichment plant,” expert David Albright noted. The best case is that Iran’s new president wants more enriched uranium as a bargaining chip. The worst case is rapid production of three to five nuclear warheads.
2. Retaliation against American forces
Many of the recent deployments directed by Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin are beefing up security against direct attacks from Iran, like the January 2020 ballistic missile attack on U.S. personnel at a base in Iraq. U.S. outposts will be on guard against attempted strikes by Iran-backed militia.
3. More Houthi attacks
The Houthis, supplied by Iran, will continue to menace Red Sea shipping. Iran has also been working a deal for Russia to supply upgraded P-800 “Oniks” anti-ship missiles to the Houthis.
4. Another missile attack on Israel
Even after tactical failures on Apr. 13 and Oct. 1, more missile attacks from Iran re a concern. Fortunately, U.S. Navy destroyers USS Cole and USS Bulkeley fired interceptors from the eastern Mediterranean against Iran’s attack. This is sweet vengeance for the USS Cole, nearly sunk by al Qaeda terrorists in Yemen in 2000, with the loss of 17 sailors killed and 37 wounded.
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Beyond this, U.S. Central Command is massing a powerful defensive and offensive force starting to serve a new deterrent role. Should Iran field nuclear weapons, this is the type of force array that will be necessary to deter their attacks. Iran’s leaders must get the message that any nuclear-armed missiles they may build in the future won’t get through.
Two more threats from Iran could aim directly at the U.S.
5. Iran has long aspired to cyberattack the U.S.
The FBI says threat indicators are spiking. In early September, the FBI warned Iran is targeting hospitals and healthcare in the US. Don’t forget Iran almost opened the Bowman Avenue Dam in Rye, New York back in 2013; by chance, the sluice gate was offline for tenance. A 2023 bulletin from Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency warned the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps group “CyberAv3ngers” is still targeting wastewater management systems. Who knows what cyber tricks Iran may have learned from Russia.
6. Assassinate a U.S. leader
The Director of National Intelligence has briefed former President and Republican nominee Donald J. Trump on “real and specific threats” to assassinate him. “I am surrounded by more men, guns, and weapons than I have ever seen before,” Trump posted on Truth Social last week. Sadly, violence against American leaders fits Iran’s playbook.
Whatever action comes will aim to weaken and contain Iran. Iran’s proxies Hamas and Hezbollah have been mauled. But this conflict won’t be over as long as the ayatollah holds power over Iran’s people. That gang has been in the ideology and terror business for almost 50 years and won’t go quietly.
Be assured the U.S. and allies are prepared to counter every one of these options.
Whatever violence Iran unleashes next, remember China is also to blame. China buys almost 90% of Iran’s oil in what the Atlantic Council dubbed “the axis of evasion” and China’s support is enabling Iran’s lethal mayhem.
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