John Jefferson
As Republicans and Democrats gear up for the vice-presidential debate next week, exclusive polling shows that this is an event that has the potential to change everything.
Two thirds of Democrats believe the vice presidential candidates have a significant impact on the overall presidential ticket, according to polling from Prolific for the Independent.
Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance is set to debate Democratic VP pick Tim Walz this Tuesday, October 1 at 9pm ET.
Three out of four (75 per cent) Americans are planning to watch the VP debate, according to the poll, which surveyed a nationally representative sample of 2,000 participants on the Prolific platform on the 22nd of September.
Vance has said that he “doesn’t have to prepare that much” for his first head-to-head — despite reports to the contrary in The New York Times, which suggested that he will spend several days preparing this week.
Though the VP debate might appear to live in the shadow of this month’s Trump-Harris matchup, the polls suggest that the event will be far from insignificant for many voters.
As to whether debates themselves significantly impact how voters lean, our poll shows that a third (30 per cent) of viewers had a more positive opinion of Harris following the presidential debate earlier this month.
This includes 21 per cent of crucial independent voters, whose opinion of Harris improved.
For Trump, overall, most respondents said their opinion stayed the same, or worsened (14 per cent); including independents.
Just over half of Americans (56 per cent) believe that the vice presidential candidates have a significant impact on the overall ticket. This increases to two thirds (66 per cent) of Democrats, who place high value on the choice of vice president.
Considering the fact that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris is herself the current vice president, this may be unsurprising.
In fact, when incumbent President Joe Biden ran in 2020, there was much anticipation about his choice of running mate; and specific emphasis was placed on choosing a woman of color as his VP.
This year, the Harris campaign was strategic in choosing a number two, with the final lineup consisting of various white men in the Democratic Party before Governor Tim Walz was selected.
Republicans are basically evenly split on the VP issue, with 49 per cent saying that the VP choice is significant, and 51 per cent saying it is not.
In 2016, Donald Trump picked then-Governor Mike Pence as his running mate, strategically bolstering his own lack of experience with a stream conservative politician who had decades of experience in the House. But this year, Trump has done the opposite, choosing the much younger and inexperienced Vance, who first went into office just one year ago.
Andrew Gordon, Senior Research Consultant at Prolific, said: “VPs are traditionally seen as ancillary to the presidential candidate in US elections, but this time around we’re seeing a larger impact than usual. The polling data showing that two thirds of Democrats say the VP choice will affect their vote highlights this, and may be reflective of an era where concerns about continuity of leadership or health of candidates may be heightened – especially with older presidential candidates like Biden and Trump.”
Six former vice presidents have gone on to become president, while nineteen have run for the top spot; meaning that Tuesday’s debate could well showcase a future presidential candidate.
The most recent VP-to-P pipeline success story is current President Biden, who enjoyed a close public relationship with President Obama during his two terms as his right-hand man.
Gordon also noted that previous polls have suggested only 2% of voters tend to change their behavior at the ballot box as a result of a debate. Nevertheless, he added: “It’s a warning shot to the Republican campaign that this pattern of improved perceptions of Harris and reduced perceptions of Trump held for voters in all seven major swing states — critical areas where Trump needs to be winning voters to his side.
“The VP debate could therefore be of considerable importance this election cycle in shoring up moderate Republican support in light of the perceived weak performance from Trump in the ABC presidential debate.”
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