The Dilemma of German Statecraft

Of all the states (and people) in Europe who should be wary of taking a side within imperial factions and thus risking a massive retribution, Germany should have the muscle memory since the time of the Roman Empire. And yet, in the last month or so, they have made it clear who they prefer to win in what might be the pivotal contest of electoral history in living memory, one with the potential to shape our times permanently. Several times, and often as undiplomatically and explicitly as one can. 

It makes sense in a myopic but urgent way. Of all the states whose relative standing in the world order is fated to change if there is an American retrenchment from Europe, Germany will be hit the hardest. It has been the primary beneficiary of the post-cold-war order… but unlike a previous era, it has not only been a free-rider on American-provided security and order, but also, as a protectorate, has sanctimoniously lectured the hegemon from a position of cultural and political superiority. That Germany was able to do so is only because there has thus far been bipartisan cooperation between the Atlanticists of the right and left. 

But given the structural change of American politics, those days are likely over, and while Trump is but a man, Trumpism is in itself a structural reaction and will re after. And as another Florentine turned Roman reminds us, there is an inherent risk in taking a side between imperial factions vying for power. 

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