John Jefferson
After mass demonstrations broke out in the aftermath of the disputed Venezuelan elections on July 28, President Nicolás Maduro has taken harsh measures to quell protests and disrupt the political opposition. Public demonstrations have been disrupted by mass arrests, military force, and the deployment of government-aligned paramilitaries—sometimes to deadly effect. Opposition leadership, including the presidential candidate Edmundo González Urrutia and the party leader María Corina Machado, are in hiding as government forces seek to detain them.
Part of this effort includes what Maduro calls “Operation Knock-Knock,” as police go door to door to arrest people who are alleged to have participated in the protests, usually without a warrant. A portion of the operation included the creation of a toll-free telephone line and social media channel (through the government’s VenApp) for anonymous reports of disturbances and anti-government actors. The president urged Venezuelans to denounce “traitors” to the police.
In a speech last week, Maduro announced some of the results of the government’s efforts. “With the civic-military-police fusion, we have reestablished peace in 48 hours! We have now captured 2,229 terrorists… on Saturday, they will be taken to Tocorón and Tocuyito,” he said, referring to two of the country’s prisons. In addition to the thousands of protestors and opposition figures, at least two dozen people have been killed, the majority by Venezuelan pro-government paramilitary forces known as “collectivos”.
To supplement the government’s other efforts at tamping down on civil unrest, Maduro has also presented a bill to the National Assembly of Venezuela to restrict the use of social media in the country, arguing that it is a tool of foreign powers intent on undermining Venezuelan sovereignty. The country has already blocked the use of the social network X after its owner, Elon Musk, clashed with Maduro online and accused him of “major election fraud.” In response, Maduro suspended the website for 10 days, stating that it was “inciting hatred, civil war, [and] death.”
As internal unrest diminishes in the wake of the government crackdown, international pressure on Venezuela has built. While denunciations from the United States, the UN, and Latin American countries unfriendly to Venezuela were doubtless expected by the Venezuelan government, two countries that have traditionally been friendly with Maduro have also declined to recognize the results announced by the National Electoral Council (CNE). Colombia, led by president Gustavo Petro, and Brazil, under the leadership of Lula da Silva, have asked the Venezuelan government to release the voting records held by the CNE as proof of the election’s legitimacy before they endorse the results. Both countries discussed the matter over the phone Wednesday, but it does not seem that they reached an agreement on the issue.
With more than 80 percent of the voting machine receipts from the July 28 election published by the opposition online showing an overwhelming victory for González, it is unlikely that the CNE will ever release the official ballot count. Instead, Maduro has proposed running a second election, a proposal likely to be met with skepticism from Brazil and Colombia. Without a significant change in the behavior of the government, there is little reason for either country to be confident in the legitimacy of a second election when the first res in doubt.
Both countries would like to avoid a further exacerbation of the Venezuelan political and social crisis. Millions of Venezuelan refugees have either passed through or settled in their countries over the past decade, putting strain on local economies and social services and in some places increasing crime significantly. The government crackdown also threatens to further destabilize and isolate the country, leaving it more vulnerable to use by drug cartels and organized crime, which are already a problem in many parts of Venezuela.
The United States may also be attempting to pressure Maduro into recognizing González’s election to the presidency. On Sunday, the Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. has been in secret talks with the Venezuelan government and offered amnesty to Maduro and other government figures in return for a peaceful transfer of power to the opposition, although the White House denied that such an offer had been made.
Despite continued opposition protests and international pressure, however, it looks increasingly unlikely that anyone other than Maduro will be leading the country for the foreseeable future. The Venezuelan government has thoroughly coup-proofed the military, regularly purging officers with suspect loyalties and providing generous benefits, including cash bonuses, free housing, and positions in the government to faithful supporters. Any change of government would probably prove perilous not only to Maduro himself, but also to many other political and military leaders who cooperated with him.
The consistent hostility of the U.S. and its allies will likely lead Maduro to increased reliance on Russia and China for his government’s support. Both countries immediately recognized his victory in the July election and both have invested in the country in the past. China in particular has shown strong support, loaning the government billions of dollars and investing billions more in the Venezuelan oil and gas industry. Just last year, China and Venezuela signed a new comprehensive partnership agreement, and President Xi will no doubt take the opportunity provided by the country’s instability to draw it further into the Chinese sphere of influence.
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